Week 11

ofred · Nov 4, 2024

Last week:

Large: 8-2, and that's with a Duke loss that looked like a sure win ATS.
Small: 5-5

Small:
Bowling Green -13.5 BGU has underwhelmed us after competing very well vs. PSU and A&M. But then 9 days ago they went to Toledo and won handily. It is a veteran team at 4-4 that really has no glaring weaknesses(by MAC standards). Their defense has also been much better at getting turnovers. A big part of this play is that CMU is down to their 3rd string QB, without their leading WR, and has a terrible defense. CMU at home, but these weekday MAC games get poor fan support when teams are awful.

mak104 · Nov 4, 2024

Went to 14 here.

ofred · Nov 6, 2024

Tough loss on BG tonight. They truly looked like the much better team, but those early FGs, and penalties, cost the cover.

Small:

Wake Forest +7 Cal almost always find a way to either lose or make it close in a win. They got their big win vs. a pretty terrible Oregon State team, but I'm not convinced. Losing to NC State at home and to a bad FSU team, not good. They don't run the ball well, and QB Mendoza seemingly has decent stats, but holds the ball too long, and gets happy feet too quickly. Wake doesn't have much of a defense, but their offense is good enough to win this game...or keep within the number. Other than their Clemson and Ole Miss games, they have competed well.

Memphis -9.5 Going against Memphis as a favorite the last 2 weeks has been a good idea. They should be able to rebound here vs. a Rice team that is off an emotional win with Navy. Their coach gets fired, they beat a one loss team, and often a letdown follows. Rice is getting much of the bets and money, I think, because there is the perception that they keep games close vs. better competition..or that their D is pretty good. But Rice has gotten crushed by 20 or more already 3 times this season. And their schedule has been pretty weak. They are a better D vs. running teams like Navy. If Memphis doesn't make a bunch of mistakes, they should win by 2 TDs or more.

ofred · Nov 6, 2024

This is just anecdotal, but it seems that in the early Saturday games weeks 8-10, going back years, underdogs do well ATS. But then about week 11 or 12, the top teams often massacre the weaklings. Maybe it's the feeling of needing to impress to win a playoff spot or to be ranked high. Just my 2 cents.

Large:

Ohio State -38 This will depend on the Buckeyes' 2nd stringers continuing to beat Purdue up. I thought about a 1H play and a 1Q play also, and still might. Purdue just cannot stop anyone defensively. I also thinktheir offense will cough up a few turnovers.

Splitting this:
Texas -11.5 1H
Texas -21 (-116) Texas off a bye, while Florida off a bruising game at Georgia. Florida playing with a 3rd string QB who looked overwhelmed at Georgia. Top WR and RB out, although their backup RBs are decent. Texas in a down period after losing to Georgia and squeaking by Vandy(penalties were one source of that). They should get Bond back, and I just think their defense will play a big part here in a home game they really need to come out strong.

ULM +7.5 ULM might just have a superstar RB in Ahmad Hardy- 433 yards in his last 3 games, and a 53 yard TD reception. I also like their QB, who hasn't wowed anyone, but has poise and a decent arm along with some running abilities. ULM is 2nd in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. Texas State likely to be without starting QB McCloud, who has an ankle injury. ULM only has one ugly loss, other than their Texas game. At home.

Georgia Tech +11 (-112) Brent Key has done well upsetting superior teams, or at least won ATS. Haynes King likely playing after GT's bye. Miami coming off a 2nd half rout of Duke, but much of that was due to the Duke QB turning it over 4 times. I think GT keeps it close and maybe gets the upset.

indiana · Thursday at 1:06 AM

Fred......thank you for your early thought's buddy....
BOL with all your weekend action......indy

ofred · Thursday at 12:01 PM

indiana said:
Fred......thank you for your early thought's buddy....
BOL with all your weekend action......indy

Thanks Indy. GL to you also.

Small:
Navy -2.5 (-120) Navy off of 2 losses, but I think they'll do better against a team that doesn't have much of a passing game. USF doesn't have much time to prep for the Navy offense, and doesn't seem disciplined enough to defend it well. USF due for a stinker.

ofred · Thursday at 10:38 PM

These seem like public/ square plays, but I can't lay off. Large:

Notre Dame -26 This game feels like a blowout. FSU's offense has become so inept that it's like giving points to their opponents...turnovers, short fields, etc. Now FSU's defense is at least respectable, but they will get worn down here by the ND run game. Gonna play the game, not the half. FSu embarrassed by a mediocre UNC team last week. The week before they got lucky on a long run, but otherwise would have lost to Miami by 30, instead of 22. ND off a bye, no big game to look forward to, and an easy win here gives them good placement in the NC playoff possibly.

Indiana -14 (-117) Just can't resist going against offensively terrible teams. Even the UM run game has looked weaker in recent weeks. They were lucky to beat MSU. This just seems like a celebratory romp by a team that has been routinely crushed by Michigan. Once again, the Indiana defense will likely add to the point total.

South Carolina -4 (-115) The Vandy bubble has to burst eventually. They have already had a successful season. They kept it close with Texas last game, but the score didn't indicate how much Texas outplayed them. I've watched SC play a couple of times recently, and they look legit good. Unless they come in flat, they should win by quite a bit.

mak104 · Friday at 12:19 AM

I also like SC. BOL.

indiana · Friday at 12:48 AM

Fred.....solid looking add ons buddy.....
on Ind with you, may add S. Car. as well.......indy

ofred · Friday at 1:21 AM

Final large plays:

Washington +14 (-113) Some bettors have probably been saying week after week that PSU is due for a big blowout win. After all, Franklin's PSU teams of the past often delivered- at least vs. weaker or average teams. But this year's version is just not nearly as good as previous PSU teams. They don't have a deep threat, the running game has slacked off, and the defense is good but not great as in the past. Allar is recovering from a knee injury, but played last week. UW will have to tolerate the "white out", but in the past, when PSU had a less than stellar team, they lost plenty of white out games. PSU has also lost some key players to injuries.

Kansas +3 This is like a bowl game for Kansas since they are 2-5 and likely not going to one. They are much better than their record, which is partly a product of a tough schedule. No pressure, at home, while ISU is under pressure to not lose again and risk not getting a playoff spot. Iowa State has been a bit lucky, while Kansas is overdue for another win.

Jacksonville St. -10 Rich Rod has done a terrific job with the JS offense. No huddle, quick tempo and somewhat unpredictable. Got a sense that the LT defense, which has been okay, caves this week. Possible dissension among the LT program as Sonny Cumbie is almost guaranteed to be fired. LT has little in the run game, and a redshirt QB with limited experience.

ofred · Friday at 5:22 PM

Got the short end of tonight's plays. Could have gotten Memphis at 7 or 7.5. Luckily small.

Small:

UNT/ Army- over 62 This is one that borders on a more medium play. Both defenses are weakest vs. the kind of offense they are facing. Army hasn't played an offense even remotely this good, which is why their defensive stats look so good. UNT is dreadful vs. running teams. Army's usually has long drives for TDs, but I think they'll gash UNT for much bigger gains and those drives might be more like 5-8 plays.

Arkansas St. +14.5 Impressed by the ULL offense, but not as much by their defense. Arkansas State is competitive defensively and better than that offensively. Veteran team that at 5-3 has a chance for a bowl game.

LSU +3 (-120) Had to play this one. So much analysis on it that I couldn't possibly add anything more. LSU at home, and their crowd will at least keep them close throughout....although I think they win outright.

Clemson -6 Did I read that right that VT is getting about 90% of the money? A major public dog. Clemson let a lot of folks down last week, especially after their bye. Yet VT seems to usually find a way to F it up. RLM as this line went from 5.5 to 6.5 at some books.

1osubucks · Friday at 7:54 PM

Fred… any thoughts on UCLA tonight?

doogieboy · Friday at 8:39 PM

Clem….i think you did read that backward. I see Clem with over 90% money

ofred · Friday at 11:51 PM

doogieboy said:
Clem….i think you did read that backward. I see Clem with over 90% money

You're right. I didn't read it wrong, but got it from a site that had it posted wrong.

bristolnole · Saturday at 1:41 AM

doogieboy said:
Clem….i think you did read that backward. I see Clem with over 90% money

So Fred...
Does this fact change your thinking on this? I will say Tech was missing their starting QB (Drones) and their big-time RB Tuten last week. Have not yet got the word on their status for tomorrow.
My gut feeling is they both play.

bristolnole · Saturday at 2:55 AM

The other thing is I believe the opening line was -7/-7.5. If that's the case, seems like we still are seeing RLM perhaps since the current line is -6.
I don't know man. It gets a bit confusing sometimes.

Wishing you continued success Fred.....I'll be following on several!

ofred · Saturday at 1:48 PM

bristolnole said:
The other thing is I believe the opening line was -7/-7.5. If that's the case, seems like we still are seeing RLM perhaps since the current line is -6.
I don't know man. It gets a bit confusing sometimes.

Wishing you continued success Fred.....I'll be following on several!

From the site I was using, the opening line was -5.5, and then went to -6. About 90% of the money was on VT. I plan to broaden my sources and get more of a consensus of lines, bets and money. I still like Clemson as they usually respond well after a loss. I still can't figure out why they came out flat vs. UL...the bye and a run of easy wins???

ctgiant · Saturday at 6:46 PM

Fred,thank you for your outstanding analysis every week,took most of your large plays today,solid as usual.. very much appreciated..All the best!

bristolnole · Saturday at 8:54 PM

Well, it turned out RB Tuten was not in any shape to play, even though he did - until he got hurt again in the third quarter. Drones was not himself either and was taken out in the 3rd as well....

It's hard not to question the coaches playing these guys! Tech has a bye next week, and then an important stretch run. These guys should not have played IMO. I have been trying hard to give Coach Prye the benefit of the doubt, but once again, up 7-0 at halftime and dominated the 2nd half is getting very old.

Regardless, thanks Fred, and I hope you have a good stretch run for sure!